The Economic and Social Recovery Plan (PRES) 2025–2028, unveiled by the Senegalese government, aims to mobilize 6,400 billion FCFA over four years through expenditure rationalization, public asset recycling, taxation, and endogenous financing. However, according to Professor Amath Ndiaye, economist at FASEG-USEG, this envelope remains largely insufficient to meet real needs. A synthetic estimate reveals a total requirement of 22,480 billion FCFA over the period, including 5,715 billion FCFA in 2025 (budget deficit + depreciation + OPEX), 2,925 billion FCFA in cumulative deficits (2026–2028), and 13,840 billion FCFA in public debt amortization (probably underestimated according to BSDP 2024 data).

A budget plan, not a comprehensive solution

The PRES primarily covers current expenditures, but ignores debt servicing (principal + interest), which remains dependent on external financing. "Despite the ambition for financial sovereignty, dependence on international donors and markets remains intact," warns Ndiaye. The current account deficit (2,478 billion CFA francs in 2024) reinforces this need for foreign capital, whether FDI or controlled debt.

Risk of private sector crowding out

The economist warns against excessive absorption of domestic resources by the state, which could increase the cost of credit, stifle private investment, and slow growth. "A poorly defined sovereignty must not sacrifice the private sector," he emphasizes.

Although the PRES theoretically finances 90% of current expenditures, it does not resolve the debt, with heavy maturities (eurobonds, bilateral debts). Ndiaye proposes an integrated strategy: debt restructuring (reprofiling or renegotiation), sustained debt management, and interest reduction through less non-concessional financing.

"The PRES represents progress for the budget, but it is incomplete without addressing debt and external imbalances," concludes Ndiaye. Dependence on the IMF and international markets remains the real challenge for sustainable financial independence.