Trade between China and Africa has reached a new historic milestone, surpassing US$300 billion for the first time before the end of the calendar year. According to the latest figures released by China's General Administration of Customs, the total volume of transactions in the first eleven months of the year reached US$314.413 billion.

This performance represents a 17.8% increase compared to the same period of the previous year. It already surpasses the total recorded for the entire year of 2024, which stood at $295.562 billion. This sustained growth illustrates the strength and continuity of economic relations between the Asian giant and the African continent.

A dynamic driven by Chinese exports

Data analysis reveals a two-speed dynamic. China's exports to Africa show the most robust growth. Over the period studied, their value reached $201.715 billion, registering a significant year-on-year increase of 26.3%. This strong growth suggests resilient African demand for manufactured goods, equipment, and intermediate goods from China. It also reflects the ongoing integration of African economies into value chains where Chinese inputs play a key role. Numerous infrastructure and development projects underway on the continent, often linked to Chinese financing or companies, are helping to support this demand.

On the other side, Chinese imports from Africa—that is, African exports to China—also increased, albeit at a more moderate pace. They reached $112.698 billion, representing a 5.2% year-on-year increase. This positive trend, while less pronounced, is significant. It demonstrates that Chinese markets continue to absorb African raw materials, agricultural products, and mineral resources. The composition of these exports remains a subject of observation for economists, as several African countries seek to diversify their export basket to China by including more value-added products. The stability of this trade relationship provides a framework for such developments.

Geographically shared growth

One of the key takeaways from these statistics is the broad geographical distribution of growth. China maintains trade relations with 54 African countries. The data indicates that for 41 of these partners, bilateral trade growth exceeded 10% over the eleven-month period. Even more remarkably, 22 countries saw their trade volumes with China increase by more than 30%. This dispersion underscores that the trade relationship is not limited to a few major oil or mineral suppliers. It encompasses a wide range of nations, from coastal countries to hinterland economies, contributing to a more diffuse and perhaps more sustainable interconnectedness of economies.

These achievements come amidst an international context still marked by economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. Analysts see the ability of the China-Africa partnership to maintain and accelerate trade in such an environment as a sign of its strength. The complementarity of their economies, the depth of the ties built over two decades, and the existence of institutional frameworks such as the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) provide buffers and facilitating mechanisms. Figures published by Beijing tend to confirm that, despite debates about the nature of China's commitments in Africa, actual trade flows maintain strong momentum.

As the year draws to a close, the record $300 billion mark appears as another symbolic milestone. The question that naturally follows is that of the sustainability and balance of this growth. Observers point to two key areas of focus. The first concerns the very structure of trade: the gradual narrowing of the gap between Chinese and African exports would be an indicator of maturation. The second focuses on the quality and diversification of traded goods, with the hope of seeing more finished African goods reach Chinese consumers.