L’hydrogène vert en Afrique : mirage industriel ou promesse différée ?
The International Energy Agency's Global Hydrogen Review 2025 report, published on September 12, makes a stark assessment. Africa, despite spectacular announcements in Mauritania, Namibia, and South Africa, is unlikely to see large-scale production of green hydrogen by 2030.
Barely 0.5% of the projects identified currently have firmly committed investments. The slowdown in the integration of renewable energies, the dependence on exports, which concerns nearly 80% of projects, and the high cost of capital are hampering implementation. The initial enthusiasm, fueled by ambitions to make the continent a future "green energy powerhouse" of the world, is colliding with the reality of cautious markets and unfavorable financing conditions.
Despite this situation, a few pilot projects are expected to emerge, particularly around strategic corridors in Southern Africa and the Sahel. These initiatives, although modest, will provide an experimental base for testing value chains, assessing the port infrastructure needed for exports, and training local skills. They will constitute a springboard for preparing for a later ramp-up, once financial and technological conditions are more favorable.
The report highlights the gap between political promises and industrial reality. While Africa is unlikely to become a major player in green hydrogen by 2030, the foundations laid today could determine its role in the coming decades. The battle for this energy vector is therefore not only being played out in the immediate future, but also in the ability of African countries to sustainably attract capital, strengthen their infrastructure, and build a strategy geared toward both domestic and export exploitation.
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