After reaching historic highs in 2024, when a kilogram of cocoa traded for over 60,000 Guinean francs (GNF) in some markets, the sector is now facing a sharp reversal of fortune. Since the beginning of 2026, global prices have fallen sharply, now fluctuating between $3,000 and $4,100 per ton, representing an estimated drop of nearly 28% compared to previous levels. This situation is particularly worrying for Guinean producers, for whom cocoa farming is a vital pillar of the rural economy.

Agricultural incomes in freefall

This depreciation is largely explained by the prospect of a production surplus, particularly in West Africa, the world's main cocoa-growing region. This dynamic further weakens farmers, already exposed to the volatility of international markets. In Nzoo, the epicenter of production in the forest region located 31 kilometers from Lola, the consequences are immediate. Sory Traoré, president of the cocoa producers' association, laments that buyers based in Nzérékoré now set the prices and regularly announce price reductions. While a kilogram was trading at around 16,000 GNF last week, prices now fluctuate between 15,000 and 16,000 GNF.

Regional disparities and payment delays

The market is marked by significant disparities: while cocoa sells for between 15,000 and 16,000 GNF in remote rural areas, it can reach 20,000 to 22,000 GNF in Nzérékoré. However, price levels are not the only obstacle, as payment delays are also crippling producers. One local farmer even confided that the most difficult thing is no longer just selling, but actually getting paid after the purchase.

A crisis with global repercussions

According to Souleymane Keita, president of the Prefectural Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Crafts, this phenomenon transcends national borders. The impact is all the more severe given that the economic boom of recent years had attracted numerous young investors. The current market downturn could therefore lead to significant financial losses across the entire value chain.

Faced with the anticipated oversupply in West Africa, several approaches are being considered to preserve this strategic sector. These include diversifying agricultural income sources, improving the regulation of marketing channels, and strengthening institutional support to stabilize prices and guarantee payments. Finally, investing in market forecasting mechanisms appears essential to enable producers to better anticipate international fluctuations. This is now a vital issue for better organizing the sector to ensure sustainable incomes and protect rural economies from instability.