The presidential election of October 25, 2025, which saw President Alassane Ouattara re-elected, only confirmed one thing: while the regime is institutionally sound, the opposition is in deep crisis. Forced to do without its driving forces—Tidjane Thiam (PDCI) invalidated, Laurent Gbagbo (PPA-CI) ineligible—it emerged from the election without a leader or a clear strategy. The time has passed since protest, but rather for an existential reassessment in the face of the power-in-place's dominance.

A fragmented landscape, between constrained figures and the play of succession

The opposition's political landscape is a mosaic of isolated leaders. Laurent Gbagbo drew the first post-election lesson by announcing in October that he intended to withdraw from active political office from his Abidjan residence. He now aims to be the "wise man" of the PPA-CI, thus paving the way for a delicate internal succession. From a distance, Guillaume Soro, still ineligible and out of the country, exerts a symbolic influence that still carries weight.

The Ivorian left, despite its rich history, is today a powder keg. The PPA-CI must manage the balance between the more moderate line and more radical figures like Simone Gbagbo (MGC). Charles Blé Goudé (COJEP), for his part, strives to act as a unifier on social issues. Former Prime Minister Ahoua Don Mello attempts to bring technical expertise amid these ideological quarrels.

For the PDCI, under the leadership of Tidjane Thiam, the invalidation forced a strategic shift. Thiam must prove he can lead a grassroots opposition. His challenge, and that of heavyweights in his camp like Jean-Louis Billon, is twofold: maintain internal cohesion and transform into an opposition with credible proposals against the RHDP.

Geopolitics and the Faults of Power: The Hidden Cards

The opposition can no longer operate with its eyes fixed on Abidjan. It must take into account the view of ECOWAS and the influence of financial institutions like the IMF, which advocate stability but also expect inclusive dialogue. The opportunity lies in the possibility of taking a cool, dispassionate look at the rising anti-French sentiment in the subregion to criticize and dissect the perceived proximity between the regime and the former colonial power.

Above all, the opposition must prepare to exploit the inevitable tensions within the ruling party. President Ouattara's re-election makes the question of his succession urgent. The absence of a designated successor within the RHDP, despite figures like Robert Beugré Mambé, Patrick Achi, Adama Bictogo, and Bacongo, will inevitably create internal friction by 2030. These fault lines represent a strategic hunting ground that the opposition could intelligently exploit.

The keys to restructuring: the action plan

To regain legitimacy, the Ivorian opposition must radically change its political platform: less emotion, more construction. This path requires four fundamental pillars.

Pillar 1: Unity and renewal, overcoming the historical divide

We must put an end to personal feuding and build a United Opposition Front. This is not a simple alliance of convenience, but the adoption of a lasting political charter with a non-negotiable programmatic foundation.

The most vital thing is to radically renew both faces and discourses. The opposition must promote credible leaders in their thirties and forties who speak to young people. The message must shift from nostalgia for the past to a look toward the future, in order to stop being defined by the cycle of "ineligibles."

Pillar 2: Occupation of local and social land: Return to the base

The opposition must anchor itself in a long-term strategy. It must become a grassroots social opposition. Salvation lies in strengthening grassroots structures, even between elections.

This means transforming the parties into genuine local countervailing powers: identifying the specific problems in each region (micro-problems of water, land) and providing effective advocacy. It is essential to structure a sincere connection with civil society (NGOs, youth movements) to support its actions. It is this daily presence that will make it possible to rebuild a territorial network in the face of the powerful RHDP administration.

Pillar 3: The primacy of the proposal over protest and victimization

To be credible, the opposition must equip itself with a Technical Proposal Force (TPF) capable of analyzing public policies and proposing quantified alternatives. This opposition of skills must produce a counter-project that challenges the current distribution of the benefits of growth. Regional inequalities must be tackled, not by denouncing them, but by speaking out on key issues (public debt, agricultural strategy), forcing the government to debate the substance.

Pillar 4: The strategic use of forums to institutionalize political dialogue

The sterile tactic of systematic boycott must end. The Republican Dialogue, which the government relaunched at the end of 2025, must be used as a strategic platform.

Actively participating in democratic contests (municipal, legislative, regional council, non-electoral commission, etc.) allows for maintaining a continuous institutional presence, denouncing internal dysfunctions, and gaining media points. Participation must be conditioned on specific objectives: negotiating the reform of the CEI and demanding amnesty or the release of detainees linked to the political game.

Some concrete proposals to regain ground

To give substance to this "opposition of skills," the proposals must be impactful and targeted. For example:

In Economic Governance, we must propose an overhaul of the tax system to make it more progressive and less dependent on the informal sector. Demand the establishment of an Independent Public Procurement Control Authority, with investigative powers, to combat the perception of corruption in major projects.

On the social and employment front, why not insist on the establishment of Agricultural Competitiveness Clusters in the interior regions to stimulate employment outside Abidjan?

Regarding land and the environment, it is possible to propose accelerating agrarian reform and completing the digital land registry to secure property titles, given how deep the problem is. Of course, but often forgotten, a Food Sovereignty recovery plan should be demanded, reducing dependence on rice imports through massive investments in small food farms.

Looking Ahead: The Choice Between Resilience and Disappearance

The 2025 defeat is not an end, but an ultimatum for the Ivorian opposition. Its future will not be determined by its ability to bring back figures from the past, but by its ability to embody a disruptive political proposition for the generation of tomorrow.

The challenge is clear: either it succeeds in achieving strategic unity around these concrete proposals and in initiating the generational renewal demanded by young people, thus positioning itself as a credible force with a view to 2030. Or it persists in fragmentation, victimization and protest, thus condemning itself to political obsolescence and leaving the field open to lasting domination by the RHDP.

The road to reorganization is long, but it is by becoming a useful and constructive critic, anchored in the social and no longer in the emotional, that the Ivorian opposition could regain the confidence of voters and make pluralism a real engine of progress for the country.

By Isaac Marie