Rating agency decisions significantly influence the cost of financing for African states, as a negative review generally leads to an immediate widening of risk premiums on their sovereign bonds. When Ghana was downgraded to highly speculative grade by Standard & Poor's in 2023, spreads on its foreign currency debt reached particularly high levels, illustrating the extent of the tensions that can arise after a downgrade. Such movements, while varying across countries, increase debt servicing costs and reduce access to international markets, especially for issuers whose creditworthiness is still fragile.

This dependence forces states to adapt their borrowing strategies. A downward revision of the outlook or a downgraded rating can lead them to favor regional markets such as that of the WAEMU, where government bond issuance increased sharply in 2024 according to the BRVM, or to postpone certain international bond issues to avoid prohibitive costs. Public spending then becomes more difficult to plan, as the rising cost of debt often necessitates reducing investments or revising budgetary priorities to maintain financial sustainability.

The impact of rating agencies extends beyond the immediate cost. Ratings heavily influence perceptions of country risk, as many institutional investors rely on these assessments to calibrate their exposures. When Moody's downgraded Nigeria's rating in 2023, the country saw its access to foreign currency financing tighten, even as its macroeconomic indicators showed partial improvement thanks to subsidy reform. This rapid influence on market sentiment can sometimes precede actual changes in economic fundamentals, increasing countries' vulnerability to rating agency announcements.

Faced with these constraints, several governments are intensifying their efforts to improve budget transparency and strengthen fiscal discipline. Some are also developing more sophisticated debt management tools, while others are seeking to diversify their financial partners to limit their dependence on rating-sensitive markets, notably through the use of concessional financing or regional bond issuances. Despite these strategies, the ability to circumvent the signaling power of rating agencies remains limited for economies that rely heavily on external debt to finance their development priorities.

Thus, in many African capitals, budget preparation now systematically incorporates the anticipation of rating decisions. These decisions constitute a structuring parameter of economic policy, as they determine not only financing conditions, but also investor confidence and the room for maneuver to carry out reforms in an increasingly volatile global environment.