Total factor productivity, which assesses the efficiency with which an economy combines capital and labor, remains one of the most crucial yet most underestimated drivers of development in sub-Saharan Africa. It measures a country's capacity to produce more without increasing its inputs.

Data published in 2025 by the African Development Bank indicate that African growth is projected to reach approximately 4.1 percent in 2025 and then 4.4 percent in 2026 and 2027. (Source: African Development Bank, African Economic Outlook 2025). This momentum still relies heavily on capital investment and population growth, while productivity gains remain modest. The World Bank, in its April 2025 economic update, emphasizes that labor productivity is growing too slowly to absorb the increase in the labor force, particularly in countries where more than 80 percent of jobs remain concentrated in the informal sector. (Source: World Bank, Africa's Pulse 2025).

The African Development Bank's 2025 report on the quality of growth shows that in several economies in the region, the contribution of total factor productivity to GDP remains low or even negative. This means that economic expansion relies more on the accumulation of assets and labor than on a more efficient use of resources. (Source: African Development Bank, Quality of Growth in Africa 2025). This situation limits productive upgrading, industrialization, and the creation of skilled jobs.

However, even modest progress can have a lasting impact on growth trajectories. Improved transport and energy infrastructure, wider access to digital technologies, modernized education systems, and a simpler business environment are all factors that can increase productivity. Several recent analyses by the Economic Commission for Africa show that halving power outages can increase business productivity by nearly 20 percent in some countries. Source: Economic Commission for Africa, 2025 Report on the Productivity of African Businesses.

The key lies in the ability of states to shift from a logic based on the accumulation of factors to one based on efficiency. This requires strengthening skills, encouraging innovation, facilitating markets, and improving resource allocation.

Ultimately, total factor productivity remains a silent but essential driver of development. Giving it a central place in public policy would mean embedding African growth in a more robust, sustainable dynamic, better able to generate profound structural transformations.