An exogenous shock refers to an event external to an economy that disrupts its functioning. This could be a global health crisis, a geopolitical conflict, a surge in commodity prices, or a sudden tightening of international financial conditions. This type of shock does not originate from a country's internal imbalances, but from global dynamics over which it has little control. Yet, its effects can be immediate and profound.

The Covid-19 pandemic provides a striking illustration of this. In 2020, sub-Saharan Africa's growth contracted by approximately 1.6%, according to the World Bank, marking the first regional recession in over twenty years. The fall in global demand, the decline in remittances, and the slowdown in tourism weakened economies already closely linked to international flows. Similarly, the war in Ukraine in 2022 led to a surge in wheat, fertilizer, and hydrocarbon prices, increasing the food and energy bills of many net-importing African countries.

This vulnerability stems primarily from the production structure. Several economies on the continent rely heavily on the export of raw materials whose prices are set on global markets. When the price of oil falls or cocoa prices decline, government revenues contract rapidly. Conversely, a rise in the prices of imported goods increases public spending and household expenses. This dual exposure exacerbates macroeconomic instability.

Food and energy dependency also exacerbates this vulnerability. Many countries import a significant portion of their cereals, agricultural inputs, or fuel. According to the African Development Bank, the continent imports over $50 billion worth of food products annually. Fluctuations in international prices then directly impact domestic inflation, often without monetary authorities having sufficient tools to mitigate the effect.

Financial markets constitute another transmission channel. Monetary tightening in the United States or Europe can lead to capital outflows from emerging economies, depreciation of local currencies, and an increase in the cost of debt. In 2023 and 2024, several African countries saw their risk premiums rise significantly in a context of high global interest rates. Even without an internal crisis, access to financing can thus become more difficult as a result of a decision made thousands of kilometers away.

Increased exposure to external shocks does not mean a lack of room for maneuver. Economic diversification, the development of local value chains, and the strengthening of foreign exchange reserves can cushion these shocks. However, as long as the structure of trade remains concentrated on a few products and dependence on strategic imports persists, African economies will remain particularly vulnerable to turbulence originating elsewhere.

Understanding the nature of exogenous shocks allows us to move beyond a purely cyclical interpretation of crises. They are not merely accidents, but rather indicators of structural weaknesses. For the continent, the challenge lies in transforming this exposure into an incentive to rethink growth models in order to reduce vulnerability to the vagaries of the global economic system.