Discreet yet remarkably well-connected in African and Francophone diplomatic circles, Mauritanian Coumba Ba has emerged as the surprise candidate in the race for the position of Secretary-General of the International Organisation of La Francophonie (OIF). Facing the incumbent Secretary-General, Rwandan Louise Mushikiwabo, and the Congolese candidate, Juliana Amato Lumumba, several observers believe the Mauritanian candidacy could prove to be an ideal compromise option in a particularly volatile regional context.

According to analysts, this equation goes far beyond the simple framework of fostering the Francophone space. Underlying it all are the strategic relations between Emmanuel Macron and Paul Kagame, which have grown considerably closer in recent years despite persistent tensions and the simmering security crisis between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

In this context, many believe that directly replacing the Rwandan candidate with Kinshasa's representative at the head of the OIF would be immediately perceived as a political rebuke to Kigali. Such an outcome would risk undermining the diplomatic balance patiently built between Paris and the Rwandan government, while further fueling regional tensions surrounding the conflict in eastern DRC.

Therefore, the Coumba Ba option appears to some observers as a middle ground and a saving grace. It would avoid an open political confrontation between Kigali and Kinshasa within the Francophonie institutions. Mauritania, perceived as a neutral actor in the Great Lakes region, could thus offer an honorable and acceptable way out for several influential African and European capitals.

Aged 56, Coumba Ba, a minister-advisor to the Mauritanian presidency, has so far conducted a low-key but methodical campaign. Less exposed to the media than her rivals, she nevertheless benefits from a strong network of contacts and a consensus-building profile, likely to appeal to member states keen to avoid an overly politicized power struggle.

While Kigali is united in its efforts to retain power through the reappointment of Louise Mushikiwabo and Kinshasa is strongly pushing the highly symbolic candidacy of Juliana Amato Lumumba, the entry of Coumba Ba could ultimately completely reshuffle the cards in this election with high diplomatic tension.