Smuggling in West Africa doesn't disappear as a result of controls; it simply reorganizes itself. Informal trade flows shift in response to new routes, reinforced border posts, or price differences between neighboring countries. When taxes increase on fuel, rice, or sugar, routes adapt almost immediately. According to the World Bank, between 15% and 30% of cross-border trade in the region bypasses formal channels, an estimate that represents a tax loss equivalent to several percentage points of GDP for some Sahelian states heavily reliant on customs duties.

This parallel economy relies on a rational logic of arbitrage. Differences in taxation, subsidies, or regulations create profit opportunities that incentivize operators to circumvent the rules. For example, in 2024, the fuel price gap between Nigeria and some neighboring countries exceeded 40%, fueling massive flows of smuggled fuel. These practices distort competition, weaken formal businesses, and reduce the effectiveness of public policies, since price signals are obscured and tax revenues are diminished.

The macroeconomic consequences are far from marginal. According to the IMF, fraud and smuggling reduce potential public revenue in several West African economies by an average of 2% to 4% of GDP. This loss limits the capacity to finance infrastructure, health, and education, and fuels a vicious cycle where weak public services increase the social acceptability of the informal sector. It also exacerbates dependence on external financing, which is often more expensive and subject to conditions.

The persistence of these informal routes highlights the limitations of purely repressive approaches. Strengthening controls without fiscal or trade harmonization tends primarily to displace flows rather than reduce them. Regional initiatives, such as those led by ECOWAS on trade facilitation or the interconnection of customs administrations, aim to reduce these incentives. Combating smuggling therefore requires both greater coherence in economic policies and border surveillance, with the potential for budgetary savings and fairer competition for formal businesses.