Entering its operational phase in January 2021, the African Continental Free Trade Area aims to create the world's largest integrated market in terms of the number of participating countries, with 54 signatory states and a potential market of over 1.3 billion consumers. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa estimates that full implementation of the agreement could increase intra-African trade by more than 50% by 2030 if tariff and regulatory commitments are effectively implemented.

For Senegalese companies, the stakes are twofold. On the one hand, access to a wider market offers new opportunities beyond the WAEMU and ECOWAS regions, which currently account for the bulk of regional trade. On the other hand, competition intensifies with the easier entry of products from more industrialized economies on the continent, particularly in North and Southern Africa.

Real opportunities exist in certain sectors. Agribusiness, construction materials, digital services, and fish processing can find new avenues for growth in expanding African markets. Senegal possesses logistical advantages, particularly with the port of Dakar and the future port of Ndayane, which can strengthen its position as a regional redistribution hub.

However, the gradual elimination of tariffs alone is not enough to guarantee a net gain. Numerous non-tariff barriers remain. Differences in technical standards, inconsistent customs procedures, complex rules of origin, and varying sanitary requirements can all hinder trade flows. The World Bank points out that in several African regions, logistics costs represent up to 30% of the value of goods, a level well above the global average.

Price competitiveness is another determining factor. A Senegalese company facing high energy costs, limited access to credit, and significant logistical burdens can hardly compete with a rival benefiting from economies of scale or a more efficient production environment. Market opening thus exposes structural weaknesses as much as it reveals untapped potential.

Regional integration can nevertheless play a structuring role if it is accompanied by a coherent industrial strategy. The AfCFTA also provides for a gradual liberalization of trade in services, which can benefit telecommunications, finance, and consulting firms. In these sectors, added value depends less on the physical transport of goods than on the ability to offer competitive services that meet continental standards.

The gains for Senegalese businesses will therefore be neither automatic nor uniform. They will depend on product upgrading, the ability to comply with harmonized standards, and improvements in the domestic business environment. The AfCFTA opens a door, but the ability to cross the threshold depends primarily on the strength of the national production system and on businesses adapting to the demands of a larger market.