Guerre en Iran : Le Sénégal sera-t-il épargné ?
Should Senegal fear becoming a victim of the war in Iran? Unlike the Gulf states, Dakar is thousands of kilometers from Tehran. The risk of bombs falling on it is almost nil. Therefore, there is nothing to fear in terms of security, except for our citizens in the region. However, Senegal could very quickly feel the economic consequences of this war.
The conflict is only in its third day, and already the price of oil, which had been around $60 a barrel since the beginning of the year, briefly reached $80 this Monday. Today, experts fear a price of $100 a barrel. The primary risk is linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil consumption passes. At this level, the increase in maritime transport costs is the main concern.
There is another risk related to production. If oil facilities in the Gulf countries are affected, it could certainly impact the global oil supply, especially given the significant share of the Gulf countries in global oil production. Furthermore, Russian oil has a smaller market presence, except in certain markets like China and India. All these factors combined could lead to a rise in oil prices.
However, Senegal is heavily dependent on international prices, despite its status as a producer. While the authorities decided last December to lower fuel and electricity prices at the pump, this was not because local production had been profitable; far from it. During his appearance before the National Assembly, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko reiterated the country's small share of this production.
The decrease is not due to any budgetary effort by the government, which is facing a massive deficit. It simply results from the fact that international prices have fallen sharply over the past two years, from $100 at the start of the war in Ukraine to around $60. The government has passed on a portion of these savings to consumers.
And what about Senegalese oil in all of this?
Therefore, if prices were to rise over a prolonged period, Senegalese citizens could see an increase in fuel and electricity prices. Clearly, with the current budget deficit and cash flow problems, Senegal cannot afford to shoulder any of the financial burden, unless it is willing to break definitively with the IMF, which continues to insist on the elimination of energy subsidies. The impact of these price increases on the Senegalese people is therefore likely to be immediate.
So what about Senegal's oil and gas? For now, the country cannot rely on these resources over which it has no control. With the "gas to power" and "gas to industry" programs, Dakar hopes to use its gas to produce electricity and also to supply its industrial sector.
Sonko, BP and the meeting in 2026
However, the multinationals refuse to deliver the product. Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, who has repeatedly expressed his outrage, issued an ultimatum to BP. "In 2026, we don't want to have to transport nine gas shipments from far away to Senegal when gas is produced here. We want to source our gas locally, and we will take the necessary steps to do so," he promised in August 2025, during a meeting with the national private sector.
As for Senegalese oil, there was an initial refining attempt. But the results were not promising. According to the Director General of SAR, Senegalese oil yields less diesel, the most consumed product, than gasoline and fuel oil. The profit margin on the latter is low, if not nonexistent. Consequently, importing Nigerian oil is more advantageous for SAR than using Senegalese oil. Especially since Senegal buys its oil at market price. "We don't get any discount, no preferential price at Sangomar. We can ask ourselves questions, because these are our resources. Senegal's natural resources," lamented Abib Diop.
In short, unless the Prime Minister has secretly orchestrated a power grab at BP, Senegal cannot rely on its own resources to cope with rising prices on the international market. It will therefore be fully exposed to external factors.
Commentaires (8)
Participer à la Discussion
Règles de la communauté :
💡 Astuce : Utilisez des emojis depuis votre téléphone ou le module emoji ci-dessous. Cliquez sur GIF pour ajouter un GIF animé. Collez un lien X/Twitter, TikTok ou Instagram pour l'afficher automatiquement.