Le Sénégal entre soutenabilité de la dette et la Faillite (Par Pape Ndiamé GUEYE)
Senegal is in crisis. A crisis that began as a political crisis and then transformed into an economic one—an economic crisis unprecedented in its history. Key sectors, particularly construction and the informal economy, have slowed to a crawl. The informal sector, which constitutes nearly 90% of the gross domestic product (GDP), is being disrupted and cleared from the streets by the relevant administrative authorities. This economic crisis is the result of political infighting among the main players on the political scene. Facing the current regime, which once sought power, is an opposition led by those who lost the last presidential elections in 2024.
The economic situation is catastrophic. The country has never been so close to defaulting. Sovereign debt has skyrocketed, reaching 132% of GDP. As if one misfortune weren't enough, a government announcement in September 2024 further tarnished Senegal's image with the scandal of a hidden debt of $7 billion. The new government accused the previous regime of concealing a portion of the sovereign debt, particularly loans taken out by semi-public institutions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) immediately condemned this information, deeming it a significant misrepresentation of budget deficits and public debt for the period 2019-2023.
Following these announcements, the IMF suspended $1.8 billion (€1.6 billion) in aid pending further clarification and the adoption of firm guarantees by the new authorities to prevent a similar scenario. Major rating agencies successively downgraded the country's sovereign rating. In less than a year, Senegal went from a moderate risk level of BBB+ to a very high risk level of CCC+, reflecting a loss of investor confidence given the country's fiscal trajectory.
The country has lost its former luster. The quality of its credit rating and its ability to repay its obligations are being questioned. The suspension of agreements with the IMF has effectively ejected Senegal from the financial markets, forcing it to turn to the regional market (BRVM).
The upcoming budget, currently being debated in the National Assembly, forecasts general revenues of 6,188.8 billion CFA francs and public expenditures of 7,433.9 billion CFA francs for the year 2026. These expenditures consist in part of 1,532.8 billion CFA francs in personnel costs and 1,650 billion CFA francs in administrative operating expenses.
Senegal will face a significant challenge from investors, who are adamantly awaiting repayment of their money. As a reminder, the much-vaunted oil and gas revenues of 229 billion between 2026 and 2028 will not be enough to stem the financial drain, let alone cover the debt service of 14.87 trillion over the same period. It goes without saying that the country will not be able to erase its enormous debt with additional or new resources.
The government is counting on a series of new taxes on alcohol, tobacco, gambling, money transfers, and increased taxes on corporations and income, etc. In total, the state plans to collect nearly 6 trillion CFA francs over three years. These measures are certainly ambitious, but unbalanced, as they fall 90% on households that are already struggling to make ends meet.
Excessive taxation raises concerns about the perverse effects of taxation, potentially creating a "fiscal shock" or an economic recession.
To bolster its dignity and avoid bankruptcy, the country has chosen to honor its commitments. It will have no other option than to borrow. The process is simple: it will take on new debt to pay off existing debts. To achieve this, the government plans to borrow 6,075 billion CFA francs in 2026. This colossal sum will primarily be used to: repay the 4,307 billion CFA francs in debt, finance the budget deficit of 1,245 billion CFA francs, absorb the deficit from external operations (OPEX) of 50 billion CFA francs, settle the 300 billion CFA francs in arrears on domestic resources, and cover revenue sharing of 172.8 billion CFA francs.
Credit has become increasingly scarce and expensive when it does exist due to the country's high risk of insolvency. This is compounded by an uncertain political outlook marked by political duality at the highest levels of government and the looming presidential election battle of 2029… All of this suggests even more difficult times ahead for the population.
The current emergency demands that we move beyond outdated political maneuvering and personal squabbles to finally focus on swift, both short-term and long-term solutions. Airtime should be largely devoted to fostering constructive debates on readily available financial prospects and strategies. Diplomacy would play a key role through the United Arab Emirates' "rescue diplomacy" mechanism. Indeed, the Doha monarchy has a powerful sovereign investment mechanism specifically designed for struggling Muslim countries. This mechanism allows the beneficiary Muslim country to access liquid funds, particularly foreign currency, directly in the central bank's accounts. Thanks to this diplomatic rescue, Doha has been able to inject over twenty billion dollars into Egypt and nearly three billion dollars into Pakistan. Securitization could also be considered as a solution for raising funds in exchange for debt restructuring.
Pape Ndiamé GUEYE
Finance Consultant
Commentaires (8)
Merci DIOMAYE, le traître ! On va se venger de toi tôt ou tard.
Le Sénégal était bien parti. L'espoir d'un développement économique était là ...jusqu'à l'arrivée du premier mythomane et de sa meute de dégénérés. Maintenant, on cherche juste à maintenir notre tête hors de l'eau.
Une situation difficile mais redressable. .Espérons que le plan arrêté sera capable de redresser notre économie dans la bonne direction. On le constate le gouvernement prend toutes les mesures adéquates possibles pour nous tirer de cette situation . Collaborons tous ensemble de bonne foi. Nous sommes tous concernés
Cette contribution ne prend pas en compte des possibilites de renegociation de la dette...ou de moratoire. Dans ce cas le risque est de degrader encore plus le credit du senegal....mais quand on a le dos contre le mur, il faut sauver les meubles.
On dirait que Pape Ndiamé GUEYE travaille pour le FMI qui a voulu forcer le ce nouveau régime a la faillite... CA fait presque 2 ans et ce régime s'en sort très bien. Les salaires sont paye, pas de perte d'emplois et ça investi sur l'agriculture (en voie de souveraineté nationale), à l’Energie et autres. Toutes les denrées alimentaires ont diminué et vont encore descendre (le riz ce mois-ci). Le secteur du BTP qui est en arrêt doit être en arrêt à cause des voleurs fonciers de l'ancien régime. Ceux qui ne peuvent pas justifier leur foncier sont en arrêt c'est tout.
Le Sénégal n'a pas de problème de liquidité ou payer ses dettes. Il y a le marché de l'UEMO ou ça leve des fonds sans problèmes. Les Sénégalais aussi financent ce régime. LE Sénégal respectera ses échéances et le FMI sait et c'est pourquoi ça paie des gens pour faire des articles qui ne valent rien du tout.
LE premier ministre va ramener plus de 1000 milliards de son séjour à DOHA le weekend passe et Ousmane Sonko va continuer de le faire avec ses amis musulmans qui le respecte
Ayez la tête haute Sénégalais ! Le Sénégal va non seulement s'en sortir sans l'aide du FMI mais est maintenant sur la vraie voie de développement.
Encore un politiciens financier malhonnête, Mr Gueye il faut avoir l'honnêteté de dire l'origine de cette dette
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