5 % de croissance : Trop peu pour lutter contre le chômage des jeunes au Sénégal
Economist Amath Ndiaye (FASEG-UCAD) denounces "jobless growth" and calls for a radical budgetary reorientation to absorb the 200,000 new arrivals each year on the job market.
The Senegalese government's announcement of a 5% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for 2026 has been welcomed from a macroeconomic perspective, but it is deemed "largely insufficient to stabilize employment" by economist Professor Amath Ndiaye of FASEG-UCAD. In a critical opinion piece, the expert believes that this figure does not address the country's most pressing challenge: youth employment.
The economist's analysis is based on the employment-growth elasticity, estimated at 0.6 in Senegal. According to this calculation, each percentage point of growth generates approximately 29,000 jobs. "With a projected growth of 5%, the Senegalese economy could create around 145,000 jobs," explains Professor Ndiaye.
This figure is far from sufficient to meet demand. According to ANSD data, the job market is registering "between 200,000 and 300,000 new entrants each year."
Direct consequence: this dynamic leaves an annual deficit of 50,000 to 150,000 jobs, inevitably "worsening unemployment and underemployment", particularly among young people.
This imbalance, which has persisted for several years, is explained by the very nature of Senegalese growth, which the economist describes as "jobless growth".
The vitality of GDP is largely ensured by low-labor-intensive sectors: "hydrocarbons, telecommunications, finance, major public works." These sectors have a strong impact on national figures but a limited effect on mass employment. "Labor-intensive activities—agriculture, agrifood processing, crafts, local construction, market services—are still struggling to become central to the national economic strategy," the expert laments.
Result: growth “does not translate into decent jobs or a significant improvement in purchasing power.”
Faced with this emergency, Professor Ndiaye calls for a change in budgetary direction during this period of adjustment. For him, the solution lies in transforming public spending into a "lever of employment" rather than a simple day-to-day management tool.
It advocates "reducing state operating expenses" - particularly non-productive benefits and institutional duplication - in order to redirect these resources towards productive public investment.
Budgetary priorities must imperatively return to: basic infrastructure (energy, digital, hydraulic), vocational training, health and improving agricultural productivity.
To achieve employment stability, the economist recommends that Senegal aim for more ambitious growth, of 7 to 8% per year, and above all "more inclusive and more labor-intensive."
This involves in particular:
An industrial and agricultural strategy based on local processing and the creation of value chains.
An active employment policy: support for SMEs, hiring incentives and promotion of entrepreneurship.
Exemplary budgetary governance, geared towards reducing territorial inequalities.
"The 5% growth rate forecast for 2026 will not stabilize unemployment or address demographic pressures," concludes Professor Ndiaye. He insists: "Reducing the state's standard of living, investing in productive sectors, and promoting inclusive growth: these are the real priorities."
Commentaires (4)
Évidement vous verrez peu ou pas de commentaires de mes compatriotes sénégalais sous cet article.
Ça c'est même un rêve irréalisable.
et quel est votre avis et commentaire sur ce sujet?
Une croissance déséquilibrée (par rapport au taux de croissance de la population) se fait ressentir partout. Personne n'ose en parler dans les pays africains, mais il faudra à un moment ou à un autre stabiliser d'abord la croissance de la population pour envisager le développement. Espérer l'émergence avec une croissance exponentielle de la population c'est comme pédaler son vélo à la poursuite d'une voiture qui roule à près de 100 kms/heure et espérer la rattraper.
Il y a une dette de 5000milliards à payer en 2026. Dans ces conditions il n ya aucune marge pour faire quoi que ce soit.
Payer les salaires et fonctionner devient un casse tête. Ils essayent de boucher les trous au jour le jour. Rien de plus.
C est surtout que la croissance est maintenue artificiellement grâce aux gazs et pétrole mais en réalité la croissance à chuté avec bougre d'âne et bougres andouille.
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