Debt restructuring has become a major focus of economic policy on the continent. Since the pandemic, public debt servicing has reached unprecedented levels in several countries, absorbing a growing share of budget revenues. According to the World Bank, payments owed by low- and middle-income countries exceeded $443 billion in 2022, a record high. In sub-Saharan Africa, the burden of external debt servicing increased sharply between 2020 and 2024, reducing the fiscal space available for social investment and infrastructure.

The cases of Ghana and Ethiopia illustrate the contrasting trajectories that a debt crisis can take. In Ghana, the dramatic appreciation of the cedi by 2025, estimated at nearly 40% in some periods, mechanically reduced the value in local currency of debt denominated in foreign currency. This development made it possible to reduce the external debt stock by the equivalent of approximately $14 billion and to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio closer to the targets negotiated with the International Monetary Fund. However, this improvement is partly based on a short-term monetary factor. The cumulative gaps in debt service over the past few years, estimated at more than $11 billion for countries engaged in protracted discussions with their creditors, serve as a reminder that the trajectory remains fragile when negotiations drag on.

The situation in Ethiopia presents a stark contrast. The birr's depreciation of approximately 25% has amplified the burden of external debt, transforming a cash flow difficulty into a deeper solvency problem. Despite discussions initiating in 2021 within the G20 framework, the debt relief obtained remains limited, and the burden in local currency has increased. When the currency weakens, each payment in dollars or euros becomes more expensive, exacerbating the snowball effect on public finances. In this context, exchange rate dynamics can quickly negate fiscal adjustment efforts.

The countries of the CFA franc zone, for their part, benefited from a more stable exchange rate environment, as the peg to the euro mitigated currency fluctuations. This stability sometimes had a favorable effect on the valuation of external debt when the euro appreciated against the dollar. However, this monetary advantage cannot replace fundamental reforms. A stable currency provides temporary protection against exchange rate shocks, but it does not correct persistent budgetary imbalances or dependence on external financing.

Zambia is often cited as a case of more effective acceleration. After defaulting in 2020, the country reached an agreement with its official and private creditors in 2023, which allowed for the rescheduling of a significant portion of its debt and the gradual restoration of market confidence. Yields on its international bonds fell after the agreement was announced, reflecting an improved perception of risk. This experience suggests that rapid and coordinated restructuring can reduce uncertainty and limit the economic costs of a prolonged crisis.

The current debate therefore goes beyond the simple question of debt volume. It concerns the very nature of African vulnerabilities. A clear distinction between liquidity problems and solvency problems is essential. In the former case, a temporary rescheduling may suffice to restore balance. In the latter, a deeper reduction of the debt stock is necessary to avoid a lasting spiral. Furthermore, managing exchange rate risk emerges as a central element. Dependence on foreign currency borrowing exposes economies to fluctuations they cannot control, particularly when their export earnings are concentrated on a few primary commodities.

Promoting local currency instruments is a frequently suggested approach. Developing deeper domestic bond markets, attracting national institutional savings, and reducing the share of foreign currency-denominated debt could mitigate this structural vulnerability. However, these markets remain relatively illiquid in many countries and cannot absorb all short-term financing needs.

Debt restructuring is therefore not simply an accounting operation. It involves a strategic choice regarding how to finance development, distribute risks, and strengthen macroeconomic resilience. As long as economies remain exposed to international currency fluctuations and procyclical debt cycles, every exchange rate variation can transform a fiscal adjustment into a new crisis. The challenge is not merely to renegotiate repayment schedules, but to redefine the very foundations of financial sustainability on the continent.