Note alarmante de EMsights Capital Group : Le décryptage de Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Professeur de macroéconomie (Université de New York)
Senegal is facing an unprecedented level of debt, sparking numerous reactions both domestically and internationally. EMsights Capital Group, part of Artisan Partners, has published an alarming report on the matter. Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Professor of Macroeconomics and Public Finance at New York University, analyzes this warning from the American asset management firm in this opinion piece.
" Even though some institutions have the ability to short sovereign debt and may therefore have a direct financial interest in publishing default scenarios, such as perhaps the Bank of America rating, it is important to distinguish the types of actors who are speaking out.
The document below is published by a “real money” investor: a long-only player, a primary market allocator, who cannot monetize a Senegalese default through a short position. Conversely, this type of investor generally has everything to lose by publicly damaging a sovereign issuer's reputation, particularly in terms of relations with the issuer and future allocations.
The fact that such an actor nevertheless chooses to publish an analysis concluding that there is a high risk of default is therefore a serious warning sign, regardless of any market speculation. This suggests that, from the perspective of some long-term institutional investors, Senegal may not return to international markets for several years.
This signal deserves to be taken seriously and invites us to reconsider the dominant interpretation of Senegal's macroeconomic and budgetary situation.
Commentaires (12)
On salue tout de meme l'effort intellectuel. Cela fait plaisir de voir un economiste sneegalais qui parle parle des problemes economique du Senegal, loin des faux-economistes comme Felwine Sarr.
En 2023 Macky a essayé une restructuration de la dette cachée.
Voici le bilan de la gestion chaotique de L’APR
Dette caché.e...caisses noires... on en redemande !
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