During the 1990s and 2000s, the global economy was built around a logic of increasing trade integration, with production chains spread across several continents and a relatively fluid flow of capital, goods, and technologies. In recent years, however, this dynamic has begun to change under the influence of geopolitical tensions, trade wars, economic sanctions, and growing concerns related to industrial sovereignty.

Globalization is not collapsing, but it is gradually fragmenting around economic and strategic blocs seeking to secure their supplies, technologies, and industrial interests. This restructuring is already reshaping global value chains and could have significant consequences for African economies.

The rivalry between the United States and China particularly illustrates this trend. For several years, Washington has been increasing restrictions on exports of sensitive technologies to China, notably in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and certain strategic equipment. Beijing, for its part, is seeking to strengthen its industrial and technological autonomy in order to reduce its dependence on Western suppliers.

This logic now extends beyond the technology sector alone. Major powers are also seeking to secure their supplies of strategic minerals, energy, and essential industrial components. The disruptions experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by the geopolitical consequences of the war in Ukraine, have reinforced this desire to reduce certain external dependencies.

Industrial relocation policies are thus proliferating in several major economies. The United States has committed hundreds of billions of dollars in public support to the semiconductor, battery, and green technology sectors through programs such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act. The European Union is also seeking to strengthen certain strategic industrial capacities within its territory.

At the same time, economic sanctions are becoming increasingly central instruments in international power dynamics. The restrictions imposed on Russia since 2022 have demonstrated how quickly trade, financial, and technological flows can be reorganized as a result of geopolitical decisions.

This gradual fragmentation is already changing global supply chains. Some companies are seeking to diversify their production sites to reduce the risks associated with excessive dependence on a single country or region. The concepts of "friend-shoring" and "nearshoring" are thus gaining ground in international industrial strategies.

For African economies, this restructuring creates both new opportunities and vulnerabilities. Some countries can benefit from industrial diversification strategies and attract investment in sectors that have become strategic, particularly critical minerals, logistics infrastructure, or certain manufacturing activities.

The continent possesses resources that are particularly sought after in new global industrial chains. The Democratic Republic of Congo holds a major share of the world's cobalt reserves, while several African countries play a significant role in manganese, graphite, and certain rare earth elements used in batteries, electric vehicles, and digital technologies.

But this fragmentation also carries significant risks. Less fluid global trade, more numerous trade barriers, or increased geopolitical tensions can complicate access to markets, financing, and technologies for African economies.

African countries also face more complex diplomatic trade-offs, as major powers increasingly seek to consolidate their economic and strategic spheres of influence. Maintaining balanced relations with multiple partners thus becomes a delicate exercise in a more polarized international environment.

Regional agreements are also taking on increasing importance in this new configuration. The African Continental Free Trade Area is often presented as a way to strengthen intra-African trade in order to reduce some of the continent's external dependence.

This gradual reorganization of globalization therefore does not mean the end of international trade, but rather its recomposition around logics of economic security, technological sovereignty and strategic rivalries more marked than in previous decades.