In the Senegalese economy, the trade balance remains heavily influenced by the cost of energy imports. Petroleum products, fuels, and equipment related to electricity production represent a significant portion of foreign purchases each year. This dependence makes the external balance highly sensitive to fluctuations in international prices and complicates the management of foreign exchange reserves, which are essential for financing imports of vital goods.

Data published by the Directorate of Forecasting and Economic Studies (DPEE) shows that energy products consistently rank among the country's top imports. In 2023, Senegal's oil bill exceeded 1,600 billion CFA francs, representing more than 25% of total goods imports. During periods of rising crude oil prices, such as in 2022, fuel purchases significantly contributed to widening the trade deficit, despite increased exports of gold, fish products, and phosphoric acid.

This situation directly impacts the balance of payments. High energy imports increase the demand for foreign currency and reduce financial flexibility, especially in an economy where exports remain concentrated on a few products. When foreign exchange earnings do not grow at the same rate, external balance becomes more dependent on borrowing, foreign investment, or support from financial partners. This configuration increases the economy's sensitivity to international financing conditions.

Energy issues also influence public finances. To limit the impact of rising fuel prices on households and businesses, the government has allocated significant sums to subsidies. In 2022, expenditures related to energy price support exceeded 800 billion CFA francs, representing more than 4% of the gross domestic product. These budgetary burdens, combined with the weight of imports, demonstrate that energy dependence affects both the external balance and the state of public finances.

Reducing this dependence has become an economic priority. The development of offshore gas fields and increased electricity production from natural gas should allow for a gradual decrease in fuel imports. At the same time, investments in solar and wind power have already raised the share of renewable energy to over 30% of the country's installed capacity, compared to less than 10% in the early 2010s. These developments should lessen the sensitivity of the trade balance to oil price fluctuations, even if their effects will remain gradual.

Recent experience shows that external balance depends not only on the level of exports, but also on the structure of imports. As long as growth relies on high consumption of imported energy, the trade deficit remains vulnerable to international shocks. Controlling the energy bill thus appears to be a major determinant of macroeconomic stability.