Finances publiques : Le Sénégal face au mur des 267 milliards de mars 2026
Senegal is at a financial crossroads, facing a crucial debt repayment of 267 billion CFA francs ($480 million) due in March 2026. Séga Fall Mbodji, a statistical engineer and risk mathematician, offers a frank analysis of this now highly sensitive debt. The official determination of the debt-to-GDP ratio at 132% marks a historic turning point and puts an end to the controversies surrounding the "hidden debt."
To explain the seriousness of the situation to the general public, the expert uses a striking metaphor, stating that "the bag has become heavier than the one carrying it" because, if Senegal sold everything it produced in a year, it would not even be enough to repay what it owes.
The main danger lies in the debt rollover mechanism, where the state must borrow to repay maturing capital in a context of rising interest rates. The country is currently replacing older debt contracted at low rates (3-5%) with new debt at much higher rates (9-12%), thus creating a veritable financial trap. This situation generates a "bank crowding-out effect": by absorbing liquidity from local banks, the state reduces the credit available to Senegalese SMEs and hinders real economic growth. Furthermore, if banks are forced to write down these fragile public assets, their own financial stability is threatened by a potential domino effect.
The impact also extends beyond national borders, as repayment requires foreign currency, putting pressure on the WAEMU zone's foreign exchange reserves. If Senegal draws too heavily on these reserves, it reduces the import capacity of the entire region. On a social level, since every franc collected through customs or taxes is already earmarked for repayment, the state loses its flexibility to support the population through subsidies on basic necessities. To stabilize this mechanism, Séga Fall Mbodji believes that either a massive and rapid increase in GDP or negotiations with creditors to spread out the payments will be necessary.
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