Sénégal-Fmi : Risques sur le Plan de redressement (économiste)
The IMF's latest press release continues to provoke reactions. In addition to accusing the IMF of changing its semantics, economist Demba Moussa Dembele sees the institution as a risk to the recovery plan. Dembele believes that if the government is not careful, the plan will be "torpedoed" by the IMF, which will impose neoliberal rules that are the opposite of the government's proposals based on essentially endogenous financing.
Here is his full reflection
“Misrepresentations” or hidden debt?
Indeed, the press release notes the absence of any reference to the hidden debt, estimated at 25% of GDP, which the Senegalese authorities have been discussing since the disclosure of the real figures from the public accounts. This hidden debt was estimated by the IMF itself at $7 billion. It now refers to "erroneous declarations" by Senegalese government services. Such a narrative calls for several observations.
First, it is assumed that this narrative only involves the IMF and not the Senegalese authorities. Second, how is it that "erroneous statements" were made for three long years without detection? And how can we explain that it took the fall of the former regime for these "erroneous statements" to be disclosed? It is likely that if the former regime had remained in power, the "erroneous statements" would have continued under the noses of the IMF and the World Bank, which critics accuse of having been complicit in falsifying the country's debt figures. By changing its narrative, the IMF is trying to wash its hands clean and blame everything on "careless" Senegalese officials who made "erroneous statements" for several years!
“Support” or torpedo the recovery plan?
Further, the press release emphasizes that: " The IMF stands ready to support Senegal in designing an ambitious reform program, aligned with the national development strategy, Vision 2050, and the recent Economic and Social Recovery Plan, while drawing lessons from the conclusions of the Court of Auditors. "
In this passage, the word "ambitious" first catches the eye. Does this mean that previous programs were not "ambitious"? Then, one cannot help but ask since when has the IMF been aligning its reforms with the priorities of an "assisted" country? In truth, its objective is to impose its deadly neoliberal policies on the Senegalese government in exchange for its financial "assistance," while the new Senegalese authorities are seeking to free themselves from these policies. Indeed, during the presentation of the Recovery Plan on August 1, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko emphasized that "the objective of the recovery phase of Vision 2050 is to definitively shift gears from an old model to a new one, prior to impetus and acceleration." "However, the IMF is one of the pillars of this "old model," a neoliberal model based on extroverted economies based on commodity exports. A completely discredited model!
Furthermore, the Recovery Plan proposes a financing strategy based on the mobilization of 90% of domestic and endogenous resources! Such an option considerably reduces the need for external financing and therefore the role of the IMF. Therefore, it is difficult to see what purpose its "ambitious program" of reforms would serve, other than to torpedo the Economic and Social Recovery Plan proposed by the Prime Minister.
Learning from experience
Those who keep repeating that Senegal "needs the IMF" seem to have forgotten the institution's record since it began intervening in the country in the 1980s. For more than 20 years, Senegal was considered one of the "best students" of the World Bank and IMF's structural adjustment programs. It would eventually join the group of "least developed countries" (LDCs) in 2001! With the ousted regime of Macky Sall, the IMF had signed several programs, the most recent of which was that of May 2023. This "support" from the IMF led to... hidden debt, which is costing the current regime dearly. This reminder shows that the IMF's intervention in Senegal is a series of economic and social setbacks, never progress.
In conclusion, the current authorities should learn the lessons of this experience in their relations with the IMF. They have the choice between sticking to their Recovery Plan and ignoring the IMF's "ambitious program" or accepting it and burying the Plan.
Commentaires (19)
1. Revenir et accompagner le Senegal pour la vision 2025 donc monter sur le train en marche. En ce moment ce regime ne va pas tolerer au FMI de leur imposer ce qui ne leur convient pas.
2. Ou continuer de rester a l'ecart et risquer de voir le Senegal s'en sortir sans le FMI...Ce qui fera tres mal au FMI car beaucoup d'autre pays sous developpe vont essayer de suivre l'example su Senegal si ce regime reussit a developer le pays sans l'aide du FMI...
Le Senegal va s'en sortir avec ou sans l'aide du FMI... L'argent a bon marche du FMI va juste reduire la periode de galere.
Il faudrait créer des chaines de valeurs sur TOUTES NOS RESSOURCES NATURELLES, c'est la meilleure façon de s'industrialiser et de donner des emplois aux jeunes. On dit toujours exporter nos ressources, c'est exporter des emplois... et on s'étonne que l'immigration continue.
la bonne devise . AIDE-TOI LE CIEL T'AIDERA !
Il ne sait qu'accuser mais zéro action. Il a détruit ses adversaires politiques par le mensonge sans jamais apporter de preuves.
Il pensait que la même stratégie machiavélique va passer avec le FMI, c'est tombé sur sa tête. Chaque chose a une fin.
Ce régime sera celui qui a contracté plus de dettes et qui n'a rien réalisé à part faire la belle vie avec un premier ministre qui bénéficie d'une caisse noire haraam de 9 milliards.
Le PNUD s'oppose aux plans d'ajustement structurel du FMI en proposant un ajustement à visage humain, dont ont retrouve les grandes orientations dans la Vision 2050. Le Sénégal n'a vraiment pas besoin de se plier aux injonctions du FMI.
Wa salaam.
Yenna deugue sen ndaye vous n'aimez pas que le pays avance, mais inchalah Sonko et pastef vont réussir.
Kouye woute poubou khathie damal diape koulouna you deugue sen ndaye yi
koulouna yi yenna dakhar sen ndaye,
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