Recettes fiscales : «600 milliards F CFA risquent de s’évaporer»
According to economist Babacar Gaye, Senegal risks recording "between 560 and 600 billion CFA francs in tax losses" this year. The reason? A two-point gap between the government's growth forecast of 5% and the IMF's forecast of 3%.
"The International Monetary Fund does not speak lightly. Its teams, who stayed in Dakar in November 2025, examined an economy whose non-hydrocarbon fundamentals are worrying," the consultant recalls.
Gaye continued: “Each percentage point less growth translates into 1.2 percentage points less in tax revenue. With a two-point gap between the government's forecasts and those of the IMF, this represents a potential shortfall of 2.4% of GDP. In CFA francs, this translates to between 560 and 600 billion in potential tax losses. This is equivalent to half of the Economic and Social Recovery Plan (PRES) on which the government is counting to boost its revenue. It is more than the annual budget of several ministries combined. Above all, it represents the difference between a controlled deficit of 5.37% and a deficit exceeding 7% of GDP.”
To salvage what he can, Babacar Gaye recommends a series of measures, including the preparation of an amending finance law (LFI), "for the second quarter of 2026, calibrated on a median growth assumption of 3.5%. It is better to adjust along the way than to suffer an uncontrolled skid."
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