Former Brazilian PresidentJair Bolsonaro was sentenced on Thursday, September 11, to 27 years and three months in prison for attempted coup d'état . By a majority of four votes to one , the judges of the First Chamber of the Federal Supreme Court, the country's highest court, thus sealed the fate of the far-right leader, who was in power from 2019 to 2023.

Bolsonaro, who maintains his innocence, was found guilty of being the leader of a "criminal organization" that conspired to ensure his "authoritarian maintenance in power" in the 2022 election, despite his defeat to the current left-wing president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva .

"The defense [of Jair Bolsonaro] considers that the sentences handed down are incredibly excessive and disproportionate and, after analyzing the terms of the judgment, will file the appropriate appeals, including at the international level," said a statement published on the social network X by Fabio Wajngarten, an aide to the former head of state.

Between possible legal recourse, political and social repercussions, and the future of "Bolsonarism," this trial opens a new phase of uncertainty for Brazilian democracy.

This verdict marks a turning point in Brazilian political history. For the first time, a head of state has been held criminally responsible for attempting to overthrow democratic institutions. But beyond the symbolic significance of this judgment, the question of what comes next arises. For Gaspard Estrada, a political scientist and member of the Global South Unit at the London School of Economics, an amnesty law is unlikely, and the Brazilian right is waiting for only one thing: for the former leader to anoint a worthy successor before going to prison.

France 24 : How is this verdict against Jair Bolsonaro historic for Brazil?

Gaspard Estrada: Brazil has undergone a particular political transition process, even unique compared to other Latin American countries. Most Latin American countries that have undergone a negotiated political transition process have, generally speaking, had some recognition of the crimes that took place during the military dictatorship. This has resulted in condemnations—or at least challenges—to the military authorities.

This has been the case in Argentina and several countries in the Southern Cone [the southernmost part of South America, including Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay, editor's note]. In other countries where there has been no condemnation, there have been "truth commissions" to clarify the role of the military in these military dictatorships. But this has not been the case in Brazil at all.

In Brazil, in 1979 – before the beginning of the democratic transition in the 1980s – there were amnesty laws for both the military and those who were in the armed struggle against the dictatorship.

Jair Bolsonaro's conviction for attempted coup is historic because it involves a convicted former president, but it is not unprecedented. Lula himself was convicted of corruption, although his sentences have since been overturned and his innocence has been recognized by the courts.

In the case of Jair Bolsonaro, what is new is the fact that his entourage has also been condemned: his former defense ministers, the former director of the intelligence service, several generals... This is something historic in Brazil.

Unlike other Latin American countries where high-ranking members of the armed forces had been convicted, this had never been the case in Brazil.

Moreover, a nod to Latin American history: this judgment took place on September 11, a black day in Latin American history since it was the day when General Augusto Pinochet organized a coup d'état against Salvador Allende in Chile, on September 11, 1973.

Is there a possibility of amnesty for Jair Bolsonaro?

It's clear that this is part of Brazilian political discourse and debate. The far right and parts of the right have expressed interest in passing an amnesty law for the former leader. But the problem is the Constitution.

Several Supreme Court judges have already pointed out that this amnesty law, if passed, will most likely be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, and therefore its chances of success are quite slim.

Before a law can be enacted, the executive branch must enact it, and President Lula can veto it. This veto can, of course, be overridden by a vote in Congress, but for that to happen, the law must obtain the support of both houses of Congress by a qualified majority. Then, the law must pass constitutional review, as in any democracy where there is a true separation of powers. However, several Supreme Court justices have already publicly stated that they believe this law is unconstitutional.

So, from that point of view, even if it were passed, and even if Lula did not veto it, there is a strong chance that in the end, the Supreme Court would declare this amnesty law unconstitutional.

Will this sentence of more than 27 years in prison really be carried out?

That's what the Supreme Court judges decided, anyway. The question then becomes: where will he serve his sentence? Several media outlets are talking about Papuda prison, while others are talking about the federal police headquarters, as was the case with Lula [who was imprisoned in Curitiba, editor's note]. That question remains open, but the sentence has been set.

Will the verdict be contested on the streets?

A significant portion of Brazilian public opinion sympathizes with the ideas of the former far-right president. Society is divided and polarized, and as such, a certain segment of the population is highly critical of the ruling. Another segment, however, believes that this ruling is historic and will gradually turn the page on Bolsonarism.

And is the Brazilian right ready to turn the page on Bolsonaro?

In opinion polls, the name Bolsonaro remains a name with a real social and political basis. The problem is that today, the Supreme Court's decision reinforces other court decisions, notably the one concerning the former president's ineligibility , decided in 2023.

From this perspective, what right-wing and far-right politicians are seeking is to appropriate and reclaim this political and social base. There is therefore a whole political dispute over the legacy of this movement, and as we enter a pre-electoral period – with presidential and legislative elections in October 2026 – today, political actors are acting according to these calculations and seeking to gain the support of this electorate loyal to Jair Bolsonaro.

His successors are mobilizing media and politically against this prospect. With this judgment, Bolsonaro is out of the game, not only because he will go to prison, but because he was already ineligible anyway.

This also accelerates the opposition's political time, since before he is imprisoned, many political figures want him to declare his support for a candidate. Much action is being taken in Brazil, particularly by the governor of the state of Sao Paulo, Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, who wants the former president's approval to recover his political and social capital and be the sole representative of the opposition to President Lula.