In order to combat the steady decline in the birth rate, China has introduced various measures in recent years, the latest of which includes taxes on condoms and contraceptives in 2026.

A controversial measure. In accordance with the new Chinese law concerning value-added tax (VAT), adopted in 2024 as part of a tax reform, condoms and contraceptives will be taxed at 13% from January 1st, in order to stimulate the birth rate which has been declining for the last decade.

These products had been exempt from tax since 1993 under the one-child policy, which heavily penalized families with more than one child between 1980 and 2015.

“Now that China’s birth policy encourages births and no longer promotes contraception, it is reasonable to reinstate the taxation of contraceptives,” He Yafu, an independent demographer, told The Guardian, adding that “however, this measure is unlikely to have a significant impact on the fertility rate.”

A "derisory" profit

Indeed, the tax increase remains essentially symbolic since a box of condoms costs on average between 40 and 60 yuan (5.20 to 7.80 euros) and the contraceptive pill, available without a prescription, varies between 50 and 130 yuan (between 6.5 and 16.90 euros) per monthly pack.

According to Lee Ding, an executive at Dezan Shira & Associates, a professional services firm specializing in Asia, this taxation would bring in "only" an additional 5 billion yuan (nearly 650 million euros) per year, a paltry sum compared to the 22 trillion yuan (approximately 2.86 trillion euros) in revenue from the Chinese public budget.

"We do not believe that revenue generation is the main motivation for extending VAT to contraceptives," he clarified.

Especially since "it is women, and in particular disadvantaged women, who will suffer the most from the negative consequences," according to Yun Zhou, assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan (USA), fearing an increase in unwanted pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections (STIs).

Abortions and STIs on the rise

China already has one of the highest abortion rates in the world, with 9 to 10 million procedures per year between 2014 and 2021, according to its National Health Commission.

Experts have estimated that the actual number could be higher, as some women resort to clandestine clinics. The state stopped publishing its abortion data in 2022.

In addition, STIs are also on the rise, despite a decline during the COVID-19 pandemic years, with more than 100,000 patients with gonorrhea and 670,000 patients with syphilis in 2024, according to data from the National Disease Control and Prevention Administration.

Birth rate, a major issue

After more than three decades of strict one-child policy, the "Middle Kingdom" has multiplied its incentives in the last ten years to revive its declining birth rate.

In addition to allowing three children per couple, the provinces have introduced discounts on in vitro fertilization (IVF), financial assistance for additional children, and additional paid leave days for newlyweds.

The new VAT law also includes tax relief for childcare services and matchmaking agencies, following the allocation of 90 billion yuan (approximately €11.7 billion) to a national early childhood subsidy program. This program provides 3,600 yuan (€468) annually for each child under the age of three.

Last Saturday, the government announced the extension of national health insurance to cover all childbirth costs.

Despite these incentives, the results remained limited. In 2024, the birth rate was 6.77 per 1,000 inhabitants, a slight increase compared to 2023, but well below historical levels. The rising death rate due to the aging population has led to a demographic decline for at least three years.

The population now fears that the authorities will use coercive measures to achieve the national birth target, especially after Chinese media reported this month that, in a district in Yunnan province, women were required to declare the date of their last period to the authorities.

The local health office justified this collection as necessary to identify women who are pregnant or may be pregnant.