Despite the failure of the diplomatic meeting in Islamabad and the divisions within the Iranian government, the US president chose to extend the ceasefire. This conciliatory gesture does nothing to lift the American naval blockade.

Donald Trump extends ceasefire but maintains naval blockade of Iran. After a day of uncertainty, the negotiations scheduled for Islamabad were adjourned, but the US president announced the extension of the truce, which was due to expire Wednesday evening. "Given the deep rift within the Iranian government—which is not really a surprise," Trump wrote in a message on Truth Social, "and at the request of Pakistan, we have been asked to suspend our offensive against Iran until its leaders and representatives can come up with a joint proposal." "I have therefore ordered our armed forces to maintain the blockade and, in all other respects, to remain ready and operational. I will therefore extend the ceasefire until their proposal is submitted and the talks are concluded, one way or another."

The talks were initially scheduled to begin in Islamabad on Tuesday evening. However, the absence of the Iranians forced their postponement. Vice President JD Vance and US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who had delayed their departure all day, ultimately decided against traveling.

Oil markets under high tension

This extension of the truce by the American president contradicts his statements made that very morning, when he asserted that he was not prepared to extend the ceasefire. Donald Trump had initially made a series of optimistic announcements, claiming that a "fantastic" agreement was ready to be signed. But the Iranian negotiating team, through Pakistani mediators, had indicated that it would not travel to Islamabad on Wednesday and that it saw no prospect of participating in the talks as long as the American naval blockade remained in place.

The prospect of renewed hostilities had triggered a surge in nervousness in the oil markets, one of the indicators closely monitored by the US president since the start of the war. By not following through on his threats to resume bombing Iran, Donald Trump helped to reassure the markets. But by showing his reluctance to resort to military force again, he risks reducing his leverage and diminishing the prospect of a swift agreement. Iran continues to demand an end to the US naval blockade as a prerequisite for resuming negotiations.