Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani leaving the tomb of former Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Lebanon, on Wednesday, August 13, 2025. AP - Hussein Malla

Ali Larijani's career lives up to his name, inherited from a prominent Iranian family. Minister, Speaker of Parliament, and a multiple presidential candidate, he has held the strategic post of Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council for the second time since last August. This key position places him at the heart of power, at a time when the question of succession to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is being raised.

However, there is no guarantee that he can actually prevail. Azadeh Kian, professor emeritus of sociology at Paris-Cité University, offers a more nuanced perspective: "It is not obvious that his orders will actually be followed, particularly by the Revolutionary Guards, who are a state within a state."

Negotiating with Westerners

It is perhaps on the international stage that Ali Larijani could score points. A doctor of philosophy and Kant specialist, he has already conducted negotiations with Western powers, who saw him as a pragmatic conservative. "If the Americans or the Israelis wanted to eliminate him, he would be eliminated like the others. Except that they want to keep someone with whom they can actually discuss and negotiate," argues Azadeh Kian.

But this interpretation doesn't convince everyone. Mahnaz Shirali, a political scientist specializing in Iran, doesn't believe in his chances, especially against Donald Trump: "Ali Larijani is a criminal against humanity, hated by Iranians. Even if the two men were to reach some kind of compromise, they could not possibly establish an authority based on Ali Larijani."

According to her, Larijani would at most have the political weight necessary to negotiate a departure from the regime, but not to embody the future of Iranian power.