The UN Security Council is expected to give the green light to the reinstatement of sanctions against Tehran on Friday, barring any surprises, just days before the organization's annual summit, which could nonetheless provide a new opportunity...

In 2015, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States, Russia, and China reached an agreement (JCPOA) with Tehran, providing for a framework for Iranian nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. The agreement was ratified by UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which expires in mid-October.

The United States, under President Donald Trump's first term, decided in 2018 to withdraw and reintroduced its own sanctions.

Iran subsequently broke certain commitments, particularly on uranium enrichment. Western countries suspect it of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. Tehran denies this and defends its right to develop a civilian nuclear program.

In this context, after negotiations and multiple warnings, and a few weeks before the expiry of Resolution 2231, Paris, London and Berlin triggered the "snapback" at the end of August, a mechanism which allows sanctions to be re-established within 30 days.

Despite new discussions with Tehran, the European trio informed Iran this week that it was still waiting for "concrete" gestures.

Europeans consider the agreement concluded on September 9 between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on a new framework for cooperation to be insufficient.

"Not serious"

This agreement did not result in an immediate resumption of inspections suspended by Tehran after the Israeli and American strikes carried out in June during the 12-day war.

"The latest news we received from the Iranians is not serious," French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview on Israeli television on Thursday, saying he believed sanctions would be reinstated by the end of the month.

Formally, under the terms of Resolution 2231, the text that will be submitted to the Security Council for a vote on Friday provides for the continued lifting of sanctions.

To be adopted, Russia and China, which oppose the reintroduction of sanctions, will need to obtain nine affirmative votes from the 15 members of the Council. A number that, according to several diplomatic sources, is unlikely to be reached.

"Algeria and Pakistan could support Russia and China in approving the resolution, but other members will likely oppose or abstain, so the Europeans and Americans will not need to use their veto," commented Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group.

Rejection of the resolution would lead to the reinstatement of sanctions at the end of next week, unless the UN summit next week, which will be attended by the Iranian president, among others, can lead to new, more positive negotiations.

"The Council still has time to give the green light to a new resolution extending the suspension of sanctions if Iran and the Europeans reach a last-minute compromise," Richard Gowan told AFP.