[Focus] Le duel fratricide de l'exécutif ou la fin de l'illusion « Diomaye moy Sonko »
The political earthquake that many feared is now a tangible reality. In an institutional landscape weakened by an unprecedented debt crisis and volatile oil prices, the top of the Senegalese state is publicly fracturing. The recent statements by Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko mark a historic turning point: the break is official, and the divorce between the two architects of the 2024 political transition seems irreversible.
A de facto cohabitation and behind-the-scenes maneuvering
The Prime Minister's use of the term "cohabitation" is far from insignificant. Ousmane Sonko is abruptly redefining his relationship with the Presidential Palace on Avenue Léopold Sédar Senghor. With the support of his party, PASTEF, which holds a majority in the National Assembly, the Prime Minister has the leverage to impose a "difficult" cohabitation on the Head of State.
In this climate of mistrust, the official reception of PASTEF members of parliament and national coordinators by Bassirou Diomaye Faye served as a revealing example. While this meeting took place with Ousmane Sonko's blessing, the latter nevertheless expressed reservations during his "waxtaan" (exchanges) on Sunday, March 1, 2026. He notably deplored the choice of venue: the Presidential Palace. This symbolic unease led some members of parliament to boycott the meeting, believing that President Faye lacked the party legitimacy to convene them there. This attempt at direct dialogue demonstrates the president's desire to forge an independent image, even as he hints at his intention to run for a second term in 2029.
2029: Ousmane Sonko's frontal offensive
The Prime Minister has dispelled any ambiguity about his ambitions. Ousmane Sonko firmly stated that "nothing and no one" can prevent him from running in 2029. This declaration sounds like a challenge thrown down to the Presidential Palace, but also to a segment of the judiciary. Despite ongoing disputes with the judicial system, the PASTEF leader is banking on his electoral strength to force his way to the presidency, even if it means engaging in an institutional power struggle.
PASTEF faces a "Diomaye Coalition" without roots
The imbalance of power remains at the heart of the problem. On one side, PASTEF is a structured electoral machine that does not consider the presidential movement a threat. Its leader has even instructed his supporters to stop referring to the "Diomaye Coalition" and to focus on the party's activities.
On the other hand, Bassirou Diomaye Faye finds himself in a singular state of partisan isolation. While he attempts to rely on his coalition led by Aminata Touré, it suffers from a lack of electoral support. Within the ranks of the "patriots," the president is now perceived by some as a traitor to the original project, accused of prioritizing his political survival at the expense of the promised reforms.
The worried eye of the financial markets
This instability adds a "political risk premium" to the already high cost of Senegal's debt. International investors and the IMF are watching this confrontation with suspicion. The main fear is that of a paralysis of decision-making: if the President uses his powers to block the Prime Minister's reforms, Senegal could miss the opportunity for its financial restructuring. Senegalese Eurobonds are already experiencing selling pressure.
The President's weapons: Dissolution and appointments
Despite his isolation, President Faye retains constitutional advantages: the power to dissolve the National Assembly and discretionary appointments. By placing trusted men at the head of the administration and security services, he is attempting to safeguard his authority in the face of a state apparatus that PASTEF seeks to control.
This cold war comes at the worst possible time. The country is facing the financial "wall" of March 13th, with 746 billion CFA francs to repay. Senegal is entering a period of turbulence where the race for the 2029 elections seems to be taking precedence over the nation's economic emergencies.
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