Understanding the evolving nature of terrorism and developing appropriate responses was the aim of the Timbuktu Institute at its regional seminar held on Wednesday, February 4, 2026. This event was part of the scientific activities celebrating the 10th anniversary of the African research center. Researchers and experts examined the profound transformations of terrorism in West Africa and potential responses to them. The discussions, centered on the theme "Evolving Terrorism in West Africa: What Strategies for Adaptation?", brought together the president of the Timbuktu Institute, Dr. Bakary Sambe, the president of the Afrikajom Center, Dr. Alioune Tine, and Lassina Diarra, author of "West African Terrorism: From Islamist Proselytism to Armed Jihad" and director of the Strategic Research Institute of the International Academy of Counter-Terrorism, based in Côte d'Ivoire. In short, the debates focused on the transformation of the modes of action of armed groups, the evolution of their social bases and the relevance of state strategies in the face of these changes.

For Bakary Sambe, security approaches inherited from traditional conflicts are now showing their limitations. "Strategies must be adapted to the new situation, which is the endogenization of this jihadism with increasingly local populations and increasingly local fighters," he stated. According to him, a military offensive, taken in isolation, cannot constitute a lasting solution: "We have never seen a Kalashnikov kill an ideology." The researcher advocates prioritizing other approaches, based on peace education, awareness-raising, and community involvement.

The president of the Timbuktu Institute emphasized the need for a paradigm shift in conflict management. In his view, the military balance of power has reached a point of saturation: "We have reached a stage in the conflict where terrorist groups cannot defeat our armies and where the armies cannot definitively defeat the terrorist groups." This situation, he argued, makes dialogue essential, conceived as a tool for regional stability.

This option does not represent a radical break with past experiences. Bakary Sambe pointed out that several similar initiatives have already taken place in the region. He cited the "Mauritanian experience" with Salafist actors involved in jihad, as well as reintegration processes observed "in Morocco, Algeria, and elsewhere." He added that humanitarian negotiations have been conducted in various crisis contexts. According to him, the existence of these precedents demonstrates the usefulness of "bridges" that can be mobilized to restore lasting stability.

One of the key points of discussion concerned the concrete effects of the evolving nature of terrorism. West African armies, trained for conventional warfare and border control, are facing a different reality. "There is a phenomenon whereby jihadists and terrorists are born within our borders," explained Bakary Sambe, referring to "home-ground terrorism." This internalization of the phenomenon, he argued, necessitates equally internal solutions, including dialogue.

The issue of sovereignty, widely debated in the sub-region, was also addressed. Bakary Sambe expressed reservations about the extensive use of this concept in security matters. "In security matters, there is no sovereignty," he stated, before illustrating his point with regional interdependencies. Cross-border dynamics render any strictly national response illusory. He thus advocated for "positive interdependence and constructive collaboration," preferable to sovereignty, which he perceived as an outdated framework in the face of current threats.

Regarding the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), Bakary Sambe stated that their objective was not the direct conquest of capital cities. "JNIM's strategy is not to take Bamako," he explained, but rather "to bring Bamako to its knees by blockading its economic lifelines." He spoke of an "economic jihad" aimed at the gradual asphyxiation of the state, drawing on lessons learned from previous experiences in Afghanistan and other conflict zones.

This strategy would rely on local actors. “There are no longer hordes of foreign jihadists invading our territories,” he noted, while citing the diversity of the communities now involved. Therefore, “since jihad is homegrown, the solution must be homegrown.” This assertion resonated in discussions about the geographical spread of the phenomenon to coastal areas. According to Bakary Sambe, the initial mistake was to isolate the central Sahel from the rest of West Africa, neglecting “historical and sociological continuities.”

Institutionally, the coexistence between the states of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and those of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was examined. Bakary Sambe referred to a "logic of collective security," imposed by shared realities. Despite political differences, neither group advocated for border closures or restrictions on free movement. According to him, economic and geopolitical constraints reinforce the imperative of coordination.

Lassina Diarra, for his part, offered an interpretation centered on ideology as a key element of terrorism, drawing on his book "West African Terrorism: From Islamist Proselytism to Armed Jihad." His book, which he presented at the event, is based on the following observation: "For several years, several decades, we have been fighting terrorism, and unfortunately, this phenomenon originates on the ground." This observation led him to question the adequacy of the responses provided and the ability of states to name the problem. "There is a structuring element, which cannot be overlooked, in the approaches, and that is ideology," he stated, after drawing on historical and geopolitical analyses.

His research highlights individual trajectories fueled by specific ideological references, which can lead to extremist violence. Based on this observation, Lassina Diarra proposes strategies to prevent the spread of these ideas within societies and to develop more appropriate responses. This reflection leads him to qualify the argument of state absence, often invoked to explain the emergence of armed groups. "There are regions where the state has a very strong presence, but unfortunately, terrorism still takes root," he observed.

The problem then lies in the quality of public action. Lassina Diarra mentioned the role of the professionalism of the agents responsible for implementing state policies. Practices of bribery and prevarication create a divide with the population, who perceive these abuses as a reflection of the state itself. And, according to him, "the heart of the fight against these groups today is the population."

The discussion then broadened to the question of religious models. Lassina Diarra cautioned against the idea of an "Islam of happiness" supposedly protecting certain countries in the region. He called for an examination of the actual structure of national Islamic models and their capacity to act as a bulwark against extremist ideologies. "We must move beyond preconceived notions and confront what our societies present," he explained. He believes that many of them remain susceptible to these influences due to the lack of a structured and appropriate religious framework.

According to him, building a national Islamic model is a crucial step. This model should be based on the specific social, environmental, anthropological, and political realities of each state. Such an undertaking would help control certain excesses, dry up sources of funding, and regulate religious actors promoting radical ideologies. In his view, this approach requires considerable political and intellectual courage.

In this context, Lassina Diarra distinguishes strategic intelligence from mere operational security. He regrets that states prioritize "immediate" responses at the expense of prevention. When ideology has not yet led to violence, he advocates "interfaith dialogue." When radicalization is advanced, "ideological deconstruction" becomes essential. He cited the experiences of Nigeria, Niger, and Mauritania, where reintegration and deconstruction were sometimes combined.

Lassina Diarra warned against the risk of offering economic alternatives to individuals whose ideological convictions remain intact. Without fundamental work on these beliefs, social integration remains, in his view, "illusory."