Senegal has just launched its first EPA (Economic Partnership Agreement) to raise 200 billion CFA francs to address budgetary challenges in 2026. It must be said that the state of Senegal's public finances has become one of the main sources of political and strategic uncertainty in West Africa. The risk of acute strain on the state treasury in the coming months is no longer theoretical. The warning signs—persistent deficit, high debt, burdensome debt servicing, and more expensive refinancing—are all converging. In this context, the temptation to blame external factors is strong: international monetary tightening, market volatility, the legacy of the past, or the responsibility of donors. These elements exist. But they are neither the primary cause nor a sufficient explanation of the current situation. The observed imbalances are primarily the result of past national budgetary decisions and political choices whose effects are now becoming apparent.

The suspension of the $1.8 billion program agreed upon with the IMF in 2023 is not the result of a hostile international agenda, but rather of "material misrepresentations" of deficits and public debt for the period 2019–2023. The Fund froze its disbursements after Dakar officially acknowledged misleading data on the true level of debt and the extent of the deficits, thus breaking the bond of trust at the heart of any such program. Indeed, all IMF assistance is conditional upon prudent financial management.

The IMF's sanction is primarily that of the markets and rating agencies, which factor into their calculations the high risk associated with public statistics deemed unreliable. Nevertheless, given that it was also Senegalese institutions—the Court of Auditors, inspections, and the new government—and not the IMF, that uncovered this hidden debt, Senegal's credibility on international markets could be quickly restored once this matter is resolved.

Committed partners, but powerless

Contrary to a growing narrative of victimhood, particularly among those who denounce Senegal as a punishment for its "sovereign" aspirations, several partners have, in recent years, committed substantial resources to support Senegal. The IMF supported the country starting in 2020 with emergency assistance of approximately $442 million to address the COVID-19 pandemic, and then, in 2023, with a 36-month program combining the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, totaling approximately $1.51 billion. Germany, France, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Canada launched a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) in 2021, mobilizing $2.7 billion in new and additional financing over three to five years to support Senegal's energy transition.

These instruments did not "backfire" on Senegal: they were suspended or slowed down when partners discovered the extent of the inconsistencies in national statistics, making any additional support politically and financially risky. Even in 2025, the IMF leadership publicly reaffirmed its "commitment" to Senegal, while conditioning a new program on the full clarification of the hidden debt and credible reforms.

To take a responsible approach

The temptation to scapegoat external parties—the IMF, markets, Western partners—is strong in a context where the sacrifices demanded of the population will be significant. But the reality is less comfortable. It is sovereign decisions—accelerated indebtedness, underreporting of deficits, and misdirected spending—that have placed the country in a state of near financial collapse. It is Senegalese institutions that have demonstrated, with supporting evidence, that public accounts had been manipulated for several years.

The way out of this crisis will therefore require shared clarity and a concerted effort:

Truth in accounting and full transparency

The detailed structure of the debt (creditors, maturities, currencies, guarantees) and the audit results must be published, and this transparency must be enshrined in law. Furthermore, the Court of Auditors and oversight bodies must be given the necessary resources and independence to prevent any return to concealment.

Orderly but firm budget adjustment

The implementation of the PRES must be accompanied by protection of essential social spending, while progressively reducing generalized subsidies and low-impact projects.

The State must ensure that tax revenue is improved by broadening the tax base and fighting fraud and corruption.

Rebuilding trust with partners

The State must resume dialogue with the IMF and donors not on a basis of confrontation, but on the basis of recognition of past mistakes and quantified, verifiable commitments to reform.

Existing partnerships – IMF programs, JETP, concessional financing – should also be used as levers to support a strategy defined by Dakar, and not as pretexts for shirking responsibility.

Senegal has major strategic advantages: institutional stability, dynamic human capital, energy potential linked to gas and oil projects, key geographical position in West Africa.

But no asset can sustainably compensate for a prolonged budget imbalance. The current situation is neither inevitable nor a conspiracy. It is the consequence of national budgetary choices that have prioritized spending and debt without sufficient consolidation of revenues.

True sovereignty does not consist of designating external scapegoats. It consists of acknowledging one's own mistakes with clarity and taking responsibility for the necessary corrections. Only in this way will Senegal preserve its financial credibility, political stability, and capacity for strategic action.

Bacary Coly Cissé