Nos budgets parlent une langue étrangère à nos économies
A subtle yet fundamental paradox lies at the heart of many African economies, and Senegal is no exception. Budgetary frameworks, debt management standards, and macroeconomic convergence requirements are often based on models designed for largely formalized economies, where the tax base is broad, transactions are traceable, and employment is mostly declared. However, in countries where a significant portion of economic activity operates outside formal channels, this structure creates a persistent disconnect between productive reality and budgetary mechanisms.
In Senegal, the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that the informal economy represents approximately 40% of the gross domestic product and more than 80% of total employment, according to its 2018 report, "Women and Men in the Informal Economy." The International Monetary Fund confirms, in its 2023 Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, that the average size of the informal sector in the region exceeds 40% of GDP and can reach 60% in some low-income countries. In other words, a massive portion of the wealth created, the labor provided, and the income distributed circulates outside the traditional tax system.
At the same time, governments base their budget forecasts on tax revenues that rarely exceed 18% to 20% of GDP in most West African countries. Senegal, despite significant progress, continues to face this structural constraint. When public spending increases to finance infrastructure, education, healthcare, or energy subsidies, the gap inevitably widens. The deficit becomes chronic, debt grows, and dependence on financial markets or external donors takes hold.
International comparisons shed light on this discrepancy. In OECD countries, estimates by Friedrich Schneider and the CESifo network, published in 2022, place the informal economy at between 12% and 18% of GDP on average. In Germany, it is around 10% to 12%. In France, it is around 12% to 14%. In the United States, it is estimated at between 8% and 10%. In the Nordic countries, it often falls below 10%. Informal employment there generally represents less than 25% of the total, sometimes less than 15%. These economies rely on comprehensive identification systems, exhaustive business registries, and tax administrations equipped with considerable technological resources.
Transposing stringent budgetary rules to environments where more than four out of five workers operate outside the formal sector has a mechanical effect. The state sets its spending as if the tax base were broad and stable, while the contributory base remains narrow and volatile. The result is not merely an accounting issue; it shapes the economic trajectory. Governments are forced to choose between fiscal consolidation and supporting economic activity. Adjustments are often made by reducing public investment or by accumulating arrears.
Recent events related to Senegal's debt illustrate this imbalance. When financial credibility is questioned, the cost of financing increases. However, an economy in which a large part operates outside the traditional tax system has less room to absorb these shocks. The informal sector plays a role as a social buffer. It absorbs labor, supports consumption, and mitigates the effects of a slowdown. But it does not generate sufficient revenue to sustainably support a modern state with high social ambitions.
It would be wrong to conclude that informality is solely a problem to be eradicated. It is also a rational response to complex administrative environments, limited access to formal credit, and high compliance costs. The issue is not about forcing a brutal formalization that risks stifling thousands of fragile economic units. Rather, it is about adapting budgetary and fiscal instruments to the actual structure of the economy.
Integrating the informal sector more fully does not simply mean broadening the tax base. It requires rethinking how economic activity is captured, improving simplified registration mechanisms, developing graduated incentives, and strengthening trust between the government and economic actors. It also implies recognizing, in macroeconomic policy choices, that the national economy is not limited to visible aggregates.
African economies are often described as structurally deficit-ridden. This characterization does not simply refer to excessive spending. It reflects a persistent gap between budgetary frameworks inherited from formalized models and productive structures dominated by the informal sector. As long as this discrepancy is not explicitly addressed, debt management will remain fragile and fiscal consolidation policies will produce social effects that are difficult to sustain.
The issue is therefore not merely financial. It is institutional and conceptual. Adapting budgetary tools to the realities of African economies means recognizing that structural transformation also requires a gradual, intelligent, and contextualized integration of the informal sector. This step alone will not resolve the debt crisis. But it could bring about lasting changes in the balance of power.
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