The latest Trade and Development Report published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development warns of a growing imbalance between the financial sector and the real economy. According to the institution, the increasing power of finance, often disconnected from productive and commercial dynamics, undermines the stability of the global economy and exacerbates the structural vulnerabilities of developing countries. This growing disconnect is presented as one of the major factors contributing to current economic uncertainty.

UNCTAD anticipates a slowdown in global growth to 2.6% in 2025, following several years of already modest performance. This slowdown is attributed to persistent financial market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and the increased dependence of international trade on restrictive monetary conditions in major economies. Prolonged increases in interest rates and rapid capital flows exacerbate the fragility of trade chains, particularly for countries most exposed to external shocks.

The report highlights a structural paradox. Developing countries are contributing increasingly to global production and international trade, yet they continue to face unfavorable financing conditions. High capital costs, shallow local financial markets, and limited access to international currencies reduce their capacity to fully benefit from trade integration. This situation limits productive investment and hinders the upgrading of developing economies.

In addition to these financial constraints, there is increased exposure to climate shocks, which directly affect productive capacity, infrastructure, and food security. UNCTAD emphasizes that these climate vulnerabilities amplify existing imbalances by increasing financing needs while reducing fiscal space. Developing countries thus find themselves caught in a vicious cycle of dependency between exogenous shocks, financial constraints, and a slowdown in trade. Faced with this situation, the institution advocates for targeted reforms of the international financial and trade architecture. It calls for restoring greater predictability in financial flows, reducing vulnerability to global liquidity cycles, and better aligning trade and finance rules with the Sustainable Development Goals. For UNCTAD, only a reorientation of international priorities toward productive investment and resilience will allow for a lasting rebalancing of the relationship between finance and trade.